I regret to inform you that I will no longer be doing previews for Streak For The Cash match-ups. It's been eating up too much of my day and being an engineering major makes my free time very limited. I apologize for ending this blog so abruptly, but I'm sure you can find other sources for information. I hope the 12 days of this blog managed to help some streaks, but I really just want to enjoy more of my free time.

Best wishes,

ItsHazzard

My Picks for Friday, February 24th

It’s starting to get closer to the end of the month, meaning the majority of people are out of the running. Those of you viewing this page that do have a considerable win streak or monthly win total, I commend you and hope my previews help. For the rest of you (including myself) better luck next month. And to clear up any confusion, my twitter and youtube accounts listed on here are of no relation to SFTC. However, I will be creating a twitter account just for SFTC relating to this website, tweeting updates and such. I’m also considering trying out a video blog (Vlog) for some props to save time and my fingers while providing even more analysis, I’ll put the Vlog idea up for a vote in the next couple days as well. Good luck on your picks today and I hope my prospective is helpful. Just remember the choices are yours and yours alone, happy streaking!

                           

2:30pm Hamburg SV Win orDraw @ Bor Monchengladbach Win

This is a German Bundesliga match between 2^nd Place Borussia Monchengladbach and 11^th place Hamburg SV. Monchengladbach won their last matchup at Hamburg 1-0 back in September. Hamburg SV is 4-3-3 on the road in the Bundesliga, and 4-0-3 in their last 7, but have lost all three of their matchups on the road against the Bundesliga top 5 by 2+ goals. Monchengladbach is 8-0-3 in the Bundesliga, with draws coming to 1^st place Dortmund, 6^th place Leverkusen, and a Stuttgart team that is very comparable to Hamburg. Borussia Monchengladbach scores a lot of goals at home, and should net at least 2 here against Hamburg and get the win here.

The Pick: Bor Monchengladbach Win                                                           Confidence: 3/6

7:00pm Miami Hurricanes @ Duke Blue Devils (NCAA Women’s)

Miami and Duke enter this game tied atop the ACC standings at 13-1 each. Miami lost at North Carolina by 2 and Duke lost its last road game at Maryland by 2. The two teams have not played each other yet this year, but Duke often blows out opponents at home. Miami on the other hand as had quite a few close road games. I think home court advantage gives Duke the edge here, I think I would take them on the road in this one too.

The Pick: Duke Blue Devils                                                                                 Confidence: 3/6       

7:03pm Butler Bulldogs @ Valparaiso Crusaders

This is not the same Butler team that lost to Connecticut in the national championship game last year, but they do still have the same great coaching. The bulldogs are 5-3 on the road in the Horizon League with their biggest win coming against 2^nd place Cleveland St. on February 11^th. Butler lost to Valparaiso at home in overtime back on December 3^rd, coming back from a 5-point halftime deficit. The Crusaders are undefeated in conference play at home since their 2-point loss to Milwaukee December 29^th.  Butler plays great defense, often holding teams to under 60 at home and on the road. This will be a good matchup, and should be a really close game. I’m going with Valpo because of the home court advantage, but Butler could very well take this one on the road.

The Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders                                                                       Confidence:    1/6

7:03pm 1^st Half 3-Pointers (Butler @ Valparaiso): 6 or Fewer/7 or More

Butler makes 5 of the 19 they shoot a game, and Valpo hits 7 of the 20 they shoot a game. So their season averages suggest 6 exactly. In their last matchup, they hit 11 total including overtime, but 6 of them were in the 1^st half. The numbers point to under here, but this is essentially a toss-up prop.

The Pick: 6 or Fewer                                                                                            Confidence:    1/6

7:05pm How many points will be scored? 134 or Fewer/135 or More (Loyola MD @ Rider

109 points were scored in their last matchup on February 3^rd, 2 of Loyola’s last 12 games have gone over and both were against a fast-paced Iona team. Rider has gone over in 10 of their last 13. I think the fact that they went well under in their last meeting is more significant, and I can’t see either team hitting 67 each here.

The Pick: 134 Points or Fewer                                                                  Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Marquette Golden Eagles @ West Virginia Mountaineers

Marquette is 12-3 in the Big East, 4-3 on the road. They lost at Georgetown and Syracuse by less than 10 points. Their last road loss was at Notre Dame by 17 to start February. Their only three conference losses were on the road against the top 3 teams in the conference excluding Marquette themselves who sits at 2nd. They did win their last road outing against a decent UConn team by 15. They’ve won their last 4 games by double figures since losing to Notre Dame. Marquette likes to score and is averaging over 80 points per game in that 4win stretch with 95 vs. Cincinnati.

West Virginia is 7-8 in the Big East, 4-3 at home. They have lost their last four home games, but all were by less than 6 points. Their last home win came against Cincinnati in overtime back in late January. They have played a few quality teams close at home this season. They lost to Baylor in overtime and beat Georgetown who was then ranked 9^th in the country. They also lost on the road to Syracuse by just 2 points. They did just lose to Notre Dame by 26 points on the road Wednesday night.

These two teams haven’t played each other yet this year. W. Virginia is pretty much already out of the NCAA Tournament whereas Marquette will be playing to improve their seed. I think a red hot Marquette team beats a W. Virginia team that is 2-6 in their last 8 games.

The Pick: Marquette Win                                      Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Fairfield Win or Single Digit Loss @ Iona Wins by Double Digits

The Fairfield Stags have not lost on the road by double digits since January 6^th against Siena. Iona is just one win ahead of Fairfield in the conference and won at Fairfield by 9 earlier this season. Iona scores the most points per game in the country at just over 83 a game, largely because they play at a very fast pace. Iona has won 4 of their last 7 at home by double digits, but teams worse than Fairfield have kept it to single digits. I think Iona does get this one by 10-14 because of home court advantage and I don’t think Fairfield can keep up with Iona on the court or on the scoreboard.

The Pick: Iona Wins by Double Digits                            Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Who will have more 1^st half points? Darius Johnson-Odom (or tie) or Kevin Jones (Marquette @ W. Virginia)

Johnson-Odom is a senior averaging nearly 19 points a game for the Golden Eagles. He’s scored over 21 in his last 4 games. Jones is also a senior for the Mountaineers and is averaging just over 20 points a game. He’s only made it to 20 twice in his last 5 games however. Jones is a forward whereas Johnson-Odom is a guard that shoots 40% on 3-pointers a much better number than Jones’ 28%. This is another toss-up prop but the players’ recent numbers point to Darius Johnson-Odom.

The Pick: Darius Johnson-Odom or Tie                                                Confidence:  2/6

9:05pm Team Shaq vs. Team Chuck

All-star games are very unpredictable because neither team will have chemistry. Team Shaq headlines Blake Griffin and Jeremy Lin. Team Chuck will be led by Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins. I think Blake Griffin and Lin will give team Shaq the W, but just like all-star games, this prop is just for fun and I would avoid it with any type of a streak this late in the month.

The Pick: Team Shaq                                                                        Confidence: 1/6

10:05pm 2^nd Half Points in the Marquette @ W. Virginia Game. 69 or Fewer/70 or More

Typically 2^nd halves usually have more scoring in them than 1^st halves. I see it going under right now, but it will really depend on how the teams play in the 1^st half. I won’t be watching this game because of the All-Star events in the NBA, but I would suggest taking the over if 65 points or more are scored in the 1^st half, otherwise take the under. I’ll gauge whether I got the pick right or by checking the half time score. So if 65+points in the first half I’m taking over. If less than 65 I’m going under. Sorry for not having an outright answer, but those are what my choices would be for the circumstances.

The Pick: Read Preview for my conditional choice                          Confidence 1/6

Max picks entry for tomorrow:

2:30pm Bor Monchengladbach Win

7:00pm Duke Blue Devils Win

9:05pm Marquette Golden Eagles

Max Picks Entry Selection:   45 – 12

Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 4 - 1

Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 79%

Pick of the Day: Duke Blue Devils (NCAA Womens)

Pick of the day percentages: 7-1 88%

My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer                                                                 24 - 7 - 1
NBA                                                                     6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball                                     28 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball                                1 - 0
Golf                                                                      1 - 1
NCAA Football                                                     0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins

Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 13 – 2    87%

Rest of the props: 94 – 44    68%

My Picks for Thursday, February 23rd

Thanks for voting on who you wanted analyzed the most today! The winner was Duke @ Florida State. I don’t think there are that many great picks today besides the soccer games. I’m bumping my confidence on Anderlecht up to 4/6 and making them my pick of the day. And to clear up any confusion, my twitter and youtube accounts listed on here are of no relation to SFTC. However, I will be creating a twitter account just for SFTC relating to this website, tweeting updates and such. I’m also considering trying out a video blog (Vlog) for some props to save time and my fingers while providing even more analysis, I’ll put the Vlog idea up for a vote in the next couple days as well. Good luck on your picks today and I hope my prospective is helpful. Just remember the choices are yours and yours alone, happy streaking!

                           

1:00pm Udinese Win or Draw @ PAOK Salonika Win

Udinese sits at 3rd in the Italian Serie A standings, a league that provides many a STFC prop winner. Udinese is 2-7-5 on the road since August, but have lost their last 3. They drew PAOK Salonika at home 0-0 just one week ago. PAOK Salonika is 3^rd in the Greek Super League, and is 10-5-2 since late July at home. They did just draw a mediocre Aris Salonika team in their last outing, and lost 2-0 the game before to a 2^nd place Olympiakos team. PAOK has drawn 5 of its last 8 Europa League games, whereas Udinese has drawn or won 6 of their last 7 Europa League games, losing to Atletico Madrid 4-0 on the road back in early November. Udinese often gets shut out on the road, but PAOK Salonika often has trouble scoring too. Home field advantage plays a decent factor because these teams seem pretty evenly matched, but the draw option and a tougher league puts Udinese slightly ahead of PAOK in my opinion.  I wouldn’t advise risking a W5 or more on this one if you are going for the streak instead of most wins.

The Pick: Udinese Win or Draw                                                             Confidence: 2/6

3:05pm AZ Alkmaar Win or Draw @ Anderlecht

AZ Alkmaar just beat Anderlecht at home a week ago, and sit tied for 1^st in the Dutch Eredivisie, but they did just lose 3-0 on the road 4days ago to bad FC Utrecht team the beat 2-0 at home. I think that fact alone shows that Alkmaar’s 1-0 at home over Anderlecht means nothing in this one considering Alkmaar’s struggles on the road, their best chance in this one is the draw(which they will probably be playing for due to aggregate scoring). Anderlecht hails from the Belgian Jupiler League where they currently sit alone at 1^st place. Anderlecht is 14-0-3 at home since July, and often scores 3+ goals… in fact, that’s their average having scored 52 goals in those seven games. Anderlecht will need a win here, and I think they redeem themselves from the last match between these two. I think Anderlecht will get the W, and of the 2 soccer props, I think this one is the safer pick.

The Pick: Anderlecht                                                                                   Confidence: 4/6        

7:05pm Which player will have more Points + Rebounds? Mason Plumlee or Tie/Bernard James (Duke @ FSU)

In their last matchup, James had 20 points & boards compared to Mason Plumlee’s 12. Bernard James averages 10 points and 8 rebounds per game, and has hit his average in 3 of FSU’s last 5 games. Both the Virginia schools held him 10 points + rebounds or less, games in which Florida State struggled. Mason Plumee is actually averaging more points+rebounds on the year than James with 11 points and 10 rebound per game. He has had 19 or more in 4 of his last 5 games, but had only 6 four days ago against Boston College. Both players are coming off poor showings, but I think the stats point to Plumlee winning this matchup.

The Pick: Mason Plumlee                                                                 Confidence:    2/6

7:05pm Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas was previously undefeated at home before getting demolished by Florida 98-68. Most of the reason behind the blowout was Arkansas’s zone defense and the fact that Florida could not miss a 3-pointer or a free throw (13-23 3-pointers, and 29-34 free throws). This shouldn’t matter too much against Alabama because the Crimson Tide are terrible from 3-Point land shooting just 27%. Bama is 2-4 on the road in the SEC, but lost 3 by 6-Points or less including a 6 point loss at Kentucky and a 4-point loss at Miss. St. They beat Arkansas at home by 6, which isn’t that impressive considering that the Hogs haven’t won in the SEC on the road. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think the home court swing will give Arkansas the advantage. I’m taking the hogs even though they blew my W7 five days ago, I would not suggest picking this one for anyone with a streak going.

The Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks                                      Confidence: 1/6

7:05pm Duke Blue Devils @ Florida State Seminoles

Duke is 10-2 in the ACC with both their losses coming at home. They came back from a big-deficit to beat North Carolina 85-84 with a 3 from Austin Rivers as time expired. In the Blue Devils last road outing, they beat an awful Boston College team by 25 points. They’ve won most of their ACC road matchups by double figures.

Florida State is also 10-2 in the ACC, but 6-0 at home. Overall, their only home loss was in triple overtime to Princeton back in December. They barely managed to beat Virginia and Virginia Tech at home, but blew out then #3 North Carolina by 33-points a little over a month ago. In their last outing, they beat Virginia Tech 48-47, their 2^nd lowest point total of the year. They only won the game because Snaer hit a 3-pointer with just 2.5 seconds remaining.

Florida State won the last matchup between these two teams at Duke by 3 after the Blue Devils blew a 9-Point lead. Snaer hit the go ahead 3 in the final seconds of the game. This is a matchup both teams desperately need to win for any chance at the ACC regular season crown. I can’t see Florida State sweeping Duke this year especially after struggling against Virginia Tech, and I think the Blue Devils even the series. Unless Florida State plays out of their minds or Snaer hit’s another game-winner, Duke has this one.

The Pick: Duke Blue Devils                                                      Confidence: 3/6

7:10pm Knicks Win or Single Digit Loss @ Heat Wins by Double Digits

The Linsanity come to Lebron’s kingdom in this matchup. Everyone knows about the Knicks success of late after Jeremy Lin became a starter. The Knicks have won 8 of their last 10 to Miami’s 9-1 record over those same 10 games. Yet Miami is a 9.5 point favorite. Miami won over New York by 10 in January, but that was before the Knicks had a Linsational point guard. I think the Heat get this one for sure, but the 10 point spread is quite a margin. The Heat have won by 10 or more in their last 5 home games,  in fact 11 of their last 12 wins have been by double figures, often 20 points. The Knicks haven’t lost by double digits since the Heat last beat them. Both teams are playing better basketball, but New York doesn’t play as well on the road.

The Pick: Miami Heat Win by Double Digits                                            Confidence:  2/6

7:30pm Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks

The Magic are slight road favorites in this one over a struggling Hawks team that is just 3-7 in their last 10. Orlando actually has more road wins than Atlanta has home ones. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and both teams average similar numbers for points scored and allowed. The Hawks did beat Orlando on the road in overtime in the only previous matchup between these two this year. This one’s a toss-up in my mind, but I’ll go for the underdog home team and say that the Hawks end their 3-game skid here.

The Pick: Atlanta Hawks                                                                            Confidence: 1/6

8:05pm How many points will be scored in the 1st 10 min of the 2^nd Half? 32 Points or Fewer/33 Points or more (Duke @ FSU)

In their last meeting, 47 points were scored in this time window even after just 58 combined points in the 1^st half. Both these teams like to score, and 33 points isn’t much for these two who both average 150 combined a game combined (roughly 37.5 per 10 minutes). All the stats point to over, which is probably the right call as long as this game isn’t a defensive struggle and one or both teams has 30+ in the 1^st half.

The Pick: 33 Points or More                                                        Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Louisville has won 7 of their last 8 Big East games, with their only loss coming to #2 Syracuse by 1. Cincinnati has won 4 of its last 5 home games, with their only loss in that stretch also coming to Syracuse. The Bearcats are 5-2 at home this year in Big East play and these teams have not met yet this season. Both are 9-5 in the conference and are very evenly matched. I think Louisville has better coaching and has fared better against tougher conference opponents than Cincinnati. The Cardinals take a close one on the road.

The Pick: Louisville Cardinals                    Confidence 2/6

9:05pm 1^st Half Points in Louisville-Cincinnati Game: 62 or Fewer/63 or More

Both teams average 70 points a game and typically go over 63 combined points in first halves but have had games nowhere close. They both also play pretty good defense and it will be tough to choose without their being any previous matchups between these two. I think it’ll be right on the 62-63 line and I would not pick this prop over the other two 9:05 ones, and there’s really no reason to choose this one because all three 9:05’s will be done after the Lakers-OKC matchup and before Gonzaga-BYU(barring-overtime). But I have to pick this one for this site.

The Pick: 63 or More                                       Confidence: 1/6

9:05pm Wisconsin Winning Margin or Tie @ Iowa 3-Pointers Made

I have a friend at Iowa who recently tweeted something about the university letting students into this one for free, meaning the Hawkeyes are looking forward to this matchup and that the Badgers will be in for a hostile crowd. Iowa actually gave the Badgers their first conference loss up in Wisconsin on New Year’s Eve. Iowa is 4-3 in the Big 10 at home with their biggest home wins being over ranked Michigan and Indiana teams by double figures. The Hawkeyes make 5 out of the 14 3’s they attempt per game. The Badgers have been playing god basketball lately and have improved since their 7 point loss at home to Iowa. I think the 3-Pointers option gives Iowa the edge here but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes win this one outright. (Best of the 9:05pm’s in my opinion, but not sure if this is worth the risk on a W5 or higher.)

The Pick: Iowa 3-Pointers Made                                         Confidence: 3/6

9:40pm Lakers 3-Pointers Made @ Thunder Winning Margin

This is the first time a prop like this for the NBA has appeared on SFTC in February. The Lakers average 5 3-Pointers on the road this year(6 in the last month) and have yet to play the Thunder. OKC has been dominating teams lately winning 12 of their last 13 by that 6-point margin or more at home. The numbers say OKC who is favored by 6.

The Pick: Thunder Winning Margin                                      Confidence: 3/6

11:05pm BYU 3-Pointers Made @ Gonzaga Winning Margin or Tie

Gonzaga is one of the tougher places to play in college basketball, and have a 14-1 home record with their only loss coming to Michigan State back on December 10^th. Gonzaga did lose at BYU by 10 on February 2^nd, and the Cougars have played well on the road with their only loss coming to West Coast Conference leader Saint Mary’s by 16. Gonzaga dominate that same Saint Mary’s team at home by 14 points. BYU makes 7 of the 19 3’s they attempt per game. That margin will be tough for Gonzaga to overcome but I think they can do it at home even though BYU has the capability to win this prop outright.

The Pick: Gonzaga Winning Margin or Tie                     Confidence: 2/6

Max picks entry for tomorrow:

1:00pm Udinese Win or Draw

3:05pm Anderlecht Win

7:05pm Duke

9:05pm Iowa 3-Pointers Made

11:05pm Gonzaga Winning Margin

Max Picks Entry Selection:   41 – 11

Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 5 - 0

Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 79%

Pick of the Day: Anderlecht Win

Pick of the day percentages: 7-0 100%

My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer                                                                 24 - 6 - 1
NBA                                                                     6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball                                     26 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball                                1 - 0
Golf                                                                      1 - 1
NCAA Football                                                     0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins

Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 13 – 1    93%

Rest of the props: 87 – 39    69%

My Picks for Wednesday, February 22nd

Blog Updates: Based off one suggestion from a viewer, I will now take a poll (top right corner) to see which props y’all want to know a little more about.  The highest vote getter(beside Man City, because I already chose it based off early voting) will receive a more extensive preview. I additionally added a view counter to the page, so you can now see how many people have view the page since the blog began just 10 short days ago. I added some blog info as well below the counter just as a reminder that ever prop is your choice, I just provide my opinions and prospective. I hope y’all find my write-ups helpful, good luck!

                                                     

12:00pm FC Porto Win or Draw @ Manchester City Win

I can already tell this prop was one of the top vote-getters so I will expand on what was previously written:

FC Porto’s road record since August is 6-4-3, and 1-1-1 in 2012. Their win came against the horrible Setubal team 3 days ago, and their draw was at SP Lisbon who are 4^th in the Portuguese Liga. More importantly, their loss was by 2 goals to a very mediocre Gil Vicente Team. Since August, FC Porto has not beaten a team of Man City’s caliber, nor have they drawn one. Fatigue will also affect FC Porto having played that Setubal team 3 days ago. FC Porto’s best chance in this one is the draw option.

Man City is currently leading one of the best leagues in soccer, the Barclays Premier League. They are a scoring machine at home, outscoring opponents 44-11 since August. Their home record in that time is 15-3-1. Two of their losses came to Manchester United, a team well above FC Porto’s level. They drew a Napoli team all the way back in September, but their most recent loss was a 1-0 showing against Liverpool on January 11^th, Man City was tired that game having played Man United just 4 days before. The loan goal they gave up was a penalty kick.  Man City is well rested for this one and should be at full go.

Man City did just beat FC Porto 2-1 on the road, and I think the home-field swing only increases the margin. I think Man city gets 2-3 goals to FC Porto’s 0-1.
The Pick: Manchester City Win                                                               Confidence: 4/6

2:45pm Bayern Munich Wins by 2+ Goals @ FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1

FC Basel drew Benfica on the road and beat Manchester United at home in the Champions League. They only have one 2-goal loss since July, and that was a 2-0 Champions League loss to Benfica at Home. FC Basel is currently in 1^st place in the Swiss Super League, which is of lower prestige than the German Bundesliga. Baryern Munich is sitting at third in the Bundesliga, but not far behind a great Dortmund team. Bayern is a scoring machine and has won by 2+ goals in 17 of its last 34 games, this state makes this 2+ goal margin more favorable than Real Madrid’s yesterday. Of their road games though, Bayern has won 4 of the 18 by 2 goals or more(but none since September), meaning 14 of their last 18 have been one goal wins, draws, or losses. Although Bayern has the potential to pull out a 2-goal win here, I think the best team in Switzerland manages the win, draw, or one goal loss.

The Pick: FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1                                                 Confidence: 3/6

7:00pm West Virginia Mountaineers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This game is the other top vote-getter..

The Mountaineers are 3-4 on the road in the Big East. There wins came against 3 of the bottom-5 teams in the Big East. They lost to un-ranked Seton Hall and St. John’s, yet they played ranked Syracuse and UCONN team’s close, with a 2-point loss to then #4 Syracuse at the end of January. West Virginia can score though, and average over 70 points a game.

Notre Dame is 6 -1 at home in the Big East and have won them all by double figures except for a 9-point win over then #1 Syracuse. Their only loss came to Connecticut, and the Irish got revenge beating UCONN 2 weeks later. They beat a top-15 Marquette team by 17 at the start of the month. Notre Dame plays great defense at home, often holding teams under 50-60 points. They average 5 points less than West Virginia, but their defense should keep W. Virginia well below their average. Notre Dame is coming off an overtime road win against Villanova four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor but will be unlikely.

Notre Dame won at West Virginia earlier this year 55-51, almost blowing a 10-point halftime lead. West Virginia is the more rested team, but fatigue should not be an issue for either squad. I think Notre Dame that is on a 6-game winning streak will continue the trend and win their second to last home game of the year against a West Virginia they already beat on the road.

The Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish                                   Confidence:    3/6

7:00pm Drexel Wins by 15+ Points or Any Other Result (vs. James Madison)

The James Madison Duke are 4 – 12 in the Colonial conference, a conference that has George Mason, VCU, and Old Dominion who annually provide an upset in the NCAA tourney. James Madison’s conference wins where against the 4 worst teams in the league. They’ve only lost twice by 15+ points in conference roads games though, and lost to Drexel at home by 7. Drexel is tied for first in the Colonial Conference and is 12 – 0 at home. The James Madison upset doesn’t seem very likely here. Drexel has won 4 of its 8 conference home games by 15+ points, often holding teams of the James Madison’s status to below 50 points. James Madison lost at VCU(similar to Drexel) by 20, and I think Drexel will cover the 15 point spread, but it’ll be really close. I would take a different 7:00pm prop and avoid this one, but I think it’ll be a Drexel 12-20 point win.

The Pick: Drexel wins by 15+ Points                                  Confidence: 1/6

7:05pm Kevin Durant’s 1^st Half Points: 15 or Fewer/16 or More

The Celtics have the second best scoring defense in the NBA. This stat suggests that the Durantula will be held to under his average. KD dropped 28 in OKC’s last meeting with Boston, but has scored 30+ points in his last four games. Durant is a scoring machine, averaging nearly 28 points per game. Do a little math and that breaks down to 14 points per half, add in the fact that the Celtics play good D and it equals this prop going under. I think KD definitely has the ability to score 16 or more in the first half, but I think he goes for 15 or less.

The Pick: 15 or Fewer                                                 Confidence: 3/6

8:00pm Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets

SM must love Philadelphia because they are so unpredictable. The 76ers have disappointed me on SFTC several times, and are on a 4 game losing streak. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 at home, including wins over Utah and Memphis. Coincidentally, the Memphis Grizzlies are the last team both the Rockets and 76ers have played, with Philly losing and Houston winning. After several 76er disappointments, I’m going Rockets here, I think they beat a struggling Philly team at home.

The Pick: Houston Rockets                                            Confidence:  1/6

8:00pm Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners are 2-5 at home in the Big 12 and OSU is 1-6 on the road. Oklahoma state won the last matchup between these two teams at home by 7 after having a 13-point halftime lead. Both teams are awful although OSU is slightly better. I can see this one going either way, but I think home-court advantage helps the Sooners out in this rivalry game. (I recommend avoiding both 8 o’clock props)

The Pick: Oklahoma Sooners                                             Confidence: 1/6

8:25pm 2^nd Half 3-Pointers: 7 or Fewer/8 or More (Celtics @ Thunder)

Despite both teams having excellent 3-point shooters, on the season, they only average a combined 12.6 per game, or 6.3 per half. In their last February, the number has jumped to 12.8 a game but would still be under 7 per half. There were 13 made in the last game between these two teams. I think SM puts this on here just because people will think of the great shooters and instantly pick over even though all the stats say under.

The Pick: 7 or Fewer                                                      Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Texas Tech Free Throws Made @ Iowa State Winning Margin

There’s a reason it’s free-throws instead of 3-pointers, and that’s because Texas Tech is just plain awful, the worst team in the Big 12 with just one conference win. ISU won by 24 at Texas tech and this one should be at least a 15 point margin as well because Tech has lost nearly all of its road Big 12 games by 15 or more. Tech makes about 13 of their 19 free throws a game. Tech made 7 of 8 free throws in the last meeting between these two teams, and Iowa State fouled them 19 times. I think Texas take will make around their season average of 14 free throws and that ISU will win by 15-20.

The Pick: Iowa State’s Winning Margin                    Confidence 2/6

9:05pm Kansas Wins by Double Digits @ Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss

This one is very similar to the Missouri wins by double digits @ Texas A&M prop the other day. The Aggies won the prop, losing by 9. There was a 10 point differential between their road game(lost by 19) at Missouri and their home game vs. Mizzou. Kansas beat A&M at home by 10, but now they will have to travel to college station. I think Kansas is better than Missouri is on the road, and in general. Kansas hasn’t won any of their last 5 road games by double digits nor has Texas A&M lost any of their last 5 home games by double digits and I doubt either team will here. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an outright win for A&M here either, because it’s always tough for opposing teams in College Station.

The Pick: Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss                                   Confidence: 4/6

9:30pm Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks

Both teams are towards the top of the league in scoring defense, with Dallas having a slight edge in points scored per game. The Mavs are heavy home-court favorites here and are 13-5 at home compared to the Lakers 5-11 road record. The Lakers did beat Dallas 73-70 back in January but had to rally from behind in the 4^th quarter. Both teams struggled shooting the ball and Dirk only had 21 points. I think the Mavs get revenge on the Lakers that they swept last year in the post-season and win this one at home.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks                                         Confidence: 2/6

9:40pm More 1^st Half Points: Kobe Bryant or Dirk Nowitzki (or Tie)

Kobe averages 29 points per game which is 10 points better than Dirk’s 19. In the last 10 games though, Kobe has averages 27 to Dirk’s 25. In their matchup in LA this year, Dirk outscored Kobe 21-14. I think this is a toss-up prop with Dirk having the slight edge.

The Pick: Dirk Nowitzki or Tie                                                  Confidence: 1/6

11:00pm 2^nd Half Points in the Lakers @ Mavericks game: 94 or Fewer/95 or More

As mentioned above, the last game between these two ended 73-70 with 69 points being scored in the second half. This game will probably make it up to the 80’s, but I doubt that they’ll both score 22.5+ points each for both the 3^rd and 4^th quarter’s based upon the quality of defense both teams play. Normally I would say this is a halftime decision, but I will be driving at the time this prop will be picked and unable to update. If 94 points or less are scored in the first half, I think the same will carry over to the 2^nd.

The Pick: 94 Points or Fewer                                     Confidence: 3/6

11:10pm UC Santa Barbara Win or Single Digit Loss @ Long Beach St. Wins by Double Digits

Long Beach State is coming off a 2-point road loss to Creighton after winning all of its 12 straight Big West Conference games. UC Santa Barbara is in 3^rd in the Big West, but lost to Long Beach state at home by 23. I think Long Beach State covers the 10 point spread easy with a winning margin anywhere from 15-25 points

The Pick: Yes: Long Beach State Wins by Double Digits                     Confidence: 3/6

Max picks entry for tomorrow:

12:00pm Man City Win

2:45pm FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1

7:05pm Notre Dame Win
9:05pm Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss
11:00pm 94 or Fewer (if A&M is over in time)
11:10pm Long Beach State Wins by Double Digits (if A&M wasn't over in time)

Max Picks Entry Selection:   36 – 11

Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 5 - 1

Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 77%

Pick of the Day: Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss
Pick of the day percentages: 6-0 100%

My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer                                                                 22 - 6 - 1
NBA                                                                     6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball                                     25 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball                                1 - 0
Golf                                                                      1 - 1
NCAA Football                                                     0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
4 winning streaks over 5 Wins

Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 11 – 1    92%

Rest of the props: 77 – 37    68%

My Picks for Tuesday, February 21st

Feel free to comment on posts, I would appreciate any constructive feedback or any opinions on props. I changed the confidence to out of 6 instead of 3 and eliminated half numbers. I hope y’all appreciate the work I’ve put into this. Despite the fact that I have shown considerable accuracy on this blog (stats at the bottom), I cannot and will not guarantee any prop on SFTC. So remember that each pick is your choice and yours alone. Green you for viewing this page and I hope the prospective I provide brings you good fortune. Thanks for the 1,000+ views, and as always, Happy Streaking!

                                                     

12:00pm Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals @ CSKA Moscow Win, Draw, Lose by 1

Real Madrid is arguably one of the best soccer clubs in the world lead by superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. This is a first round Europa Cup match-up, a title Madrid has won a record nine times. Real leads La Liga and has a 9 – 1 – 1 road record since august and has outscored opponents 30 to 6 in those games. 5 of the wins were by two or more goals. Real is a scoring machine, but 2+ goals in soccer is quite a margin. It’s harder to analyze where CSKA is right now because they haven’t played in a Russian Premier League game since November. They draw crowds of 7k-18k, but they shouldn’t face Real who is used to playing in front of 90,000. Moscow can score some goals, but they lost to a 1^st place Zenit St Petersburg team 2 – 0 at home. Real Madrid is substantially better than Zenit, and as long as the show up should win this one by 2. I think Real will win, I just hope they aren’t satisfied with a 1 – 0, 2 – 1 score.

The Pick: Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals                                                               Confidence: 3/6

2:45pm Chelsea Win @ Napoli Win or Draw

Napoli has won their last 2 SFTC props, but this time they are up against English Premier Elite Chelsea. Napoli is in Italy’s Serie A, which is a slightly weaker division than the English Premier League. Chelsea lost their last road outing 2-0 to an average Everton team. Home field advantage will play quite a factor in this Europa Cup match.  Chelsea has not beat a quality team on the road all season and have just two 1-goal road wins against decent opponents. Napoli has won or drawn all but 2 of its home games this year, including a 3-1 win over 1^st place AC Milan in front of 50,000 fans. Napoli is a tough team to beat at home and I think Chelsea plays for the draw. Unless I have vastly miss-judged the difference in level of competition, I think this will be a close game, and probably a draw or win in favor of Napoli.

The Pick: Napoli Win or Draw                                                                               Confidence: 4/6

7:03pm Missouri Wins by 15+ Points or Any Other Result (Kansas St. @ Mizzou)

Missouri has played great this year especially at home despite poor depth and a lack of size. That said, K State beat Missouri in Manhattan by 16. Kansas State led the game by 23 at one point. Missouri is substantially better at home than on the road. But beat Texas Tech at home by 13, a much worse team than Kansas State. Missouri only has 3 conference wins at home by more than 15+ Points. They very well could cover the spread, but I think a Kansas State team that just upset Baylor on the road keeps it under.

The Pick: Any Other Result                                                                                Confidence:    3/6

7:03pm Florida Wins by 20+ Points or Any Other Result (Auburn @ Florida)

Both the 7:00 college basketball games are large margin victories against any other result. The last time I didn’t choose Florida they beat an Arkansas team that was undefeated at home by 30 points. Florida is as good as any team in the country from 3 and if Auburn plays a zone like the hogs did then it’ll be another 30 point blowout. 20+ Points is a huge margin but Auburn has lost to worse teams by that margin 4 times. Florida usually wins at home by double digits including a 22 point win over a very comparable Georgia team. 20 points could be a stretch, but if they shoot like they did Saturday it won’t be a problem for Florida.

The Pick: Florida Wins by 20+ Points                                                                Confidence: 2/6

7:03pm (Illinois @ Ohio St) Jared Sullinger 1^st Half Points + Rebounds: 14 or Fewer/15 or More

Sullinger is one of the best forwards in the country. The split as usual is right on line of his averages. In his last game between these two teams Sullinger had just 5 rebounds to go along with 21 points, which would put him under. He does have the ability to score 7 or 8 and rebound just as many in the same half, but only 4 of his last 6 have gone over. The majority of people pick over simply because of the name Jared Sullinger, but if it’s on SFTC it’s probably about a 50-50 chance either way. I’d say this one could very easily go both ways, but I think it’ll go under.

The Pick: 14 or Fewer                                                                                Confidence: 2/6

8:00pm Miami Hurricanes @ Maryland Terrapins

Miami is just ahead of the Terrapins in the ACC standings, but this game is in Maryland. Maryland’s only 2 home losses in the ACC were 13 point loss to Duke and a 9 point one to North Carolina. Miami has only lost 3 times on the road in the ACC including a 1-point loss at Virginia and an overtime win at Duke. Miami won the last game between these two teams at home back on GroundHog Day in double overtime after Maryland rallied from a 11-point deficit. Considering that Maryland is considerably worse on the road then at home, I think they split the series with Miami this year.

The Pick: Maryland Terrapins                                                                   Confidence:  1/6

8:00pm Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizz lost their last SFTC prop. Philadelphia is a one point but has lost their last 3 games. These teams have not met yet this year, and the 76ers allow the fewest points in the NBA which could pose problems for a Memphis team that struggles to score at times. I think this will be a close game played in the high 80’s - low 90’s. The sixers end a 3 game skid and win by a few.

The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers                                                                    Confidence: 1/6

8:05pm 2^nd Half Points in Illinois @ Ohio St.: 64 or Fewer/65 or More

2^nd Halves in basketball typically have more points scored than first halves because of late game fouls and free-throws. Both teams average above 65 a game and 80 were scored in the second half of their last meeting after a 73 point first half. I can’t see this one going fewer at all because both teams can struggle on defense.

The Pick: 65 Points or More                                                                   Confidence: 4/6

9:05pm Virginia Cavaliers @ Virginia Tech Hokies

Tech beat a then-ranked Virginia team at UVA a month ago by 2 and one would think the home-court swing would give them the advantage. Yet currently 98% have picked Virginia to win. Virginia does play well on the road and it’s unlikely that VT will hold them to 45 points again. I think the Cavaliers split the series after beating a decent Maryland team by nearly 30.

The Pick: Virginia Cavaliers                                                                   Confidence 3/6

9:08pm Which player will have more 1^st half points? Anthony Davis(UK)/Arnett Moultrie(MSST) or Tie (Kentucky @ Mississippi St.)

Moultrie averages 2.5 more points than his opposing forward Anthony Davis. I think the key here is the fact that Miss. St. needs points from Moultrie more than Kentucky needs them from Davis. Both players shoot above 50% from the floor, but Moultrie can occasionally step out for the 3. The point differential will probably be around 3 points either way, but I like Moultrie here.

The Pick: Arnett Moultrie or Tie                                                            Confidence: 1/6

9:08pm Kentucky Wins by Double Digits @ Mississippi State Win or Single Digit Loss

Kentucky has outscored SEC opponents by double digits on the road by double digits 4 out of 6 times. Vanderbilt is very comparable with Miss. St. and in Kentucky’s last road outing, they beat Vanderbilt by just 6 points. I think Kentucky will beat a Bulldog team that’s been in poor form as of late, but it should be between 8-14 points. I think they’ll be able to keep Kentucky out of the 70’s and make it an 8 or 9 point loss.

The Pick: Mississippi State Win or Single Digit Loss                         Confidence: 1/6

10:00pm San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers

The Spurs are currently the hottest team in the NBA winning their last 11. The Blazers are heavy favorites heading into the matchup with the return of former Texas star LaMarcus Aldridge. Both teams play old school basketball but I think the Spurs are bound to lose one eventually. A re-energized Portland team beats the Spurs by a couple.

The Pick: Portland Trail Blazers                                                           Confidence: 2/6

10:55pm (Kentucky @ Mississippi State) 3PM in the last 2min of the 2^nd Half: Yes or No

The last time this prop was on SFTC there was a 3PM in the last two minutes, so that’s probably the reasoning behind the 90+% choosing that option. Don’t get duped by the inaccurate SFTC percentage, this prop could very, very easily go either way. I’ll take Yes, a 3PM on this coin-flip prop.

The Pick: Yes: 3PM in last 2min of 2^nd Half                                        Confidence: 1/6

Max picks entry for tomorrow:

12:00pm Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals

2:45pm Napoli Win or Draw
7:03pm 14 or Fewer

8:05pm 65 Points or More
9:08pm Arnett Moultrie or Tie
10:55pm Yes, a 3PM

Max Picks Entry Selection:   31 – 10

Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 3 - 3

Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 77%

Pick of the Day: Napoli Win or Draw
Pick of the day percentages: 5-0 100%

My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer                                                                 21 - 5 - 1
NBA                                                                     6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball                                     24 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball                                1 - 0
Golf                                                                      1 - 1
NCAA Football                                                     0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins

Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 9 – 1    90%

Rest of the props: 69 – 34    67%