It’s starting to get closer to the end of the month, meaning the majority of people are out of the running. Those of you viewing this page that do have a considerable win streak or monthly win total, I commend you and hope my previews help. For the rest of you (including myself) better luck next month. And to clear up any confusion, my twitter and youtube accounts listed on here are of no relation to SFTC. However, I will be creating a twitter account just for SFTC relating to this website, tweeting updates and such. I’m also considering trying out a video blog (Vlog) for some props to save time and my fingers while providing even more analysis, I’ll put the Vlog idea up for a vote in the next couple days as well. Good luck on your picks today and I hope my prospective is helpful. Just remember the choices are yours and yours alone, happy streaking!
2:30pm Hamburg SV Win orDraw @ Bor Monchengladbach Win
This is a German Bundesliga match between 2nd Place Borussia Monchengladbach and 11th place Hamburg SV. Monchengladbach won their last matchup at Hamburg 1-0 back in September. Hamburg SV is 4-3-3 on the road in the Bundesliga, and 4-0-3 in their last 7, but have lost all three of their matchups on the road against the Bundesliga top 5 by 2+ goals. Monchengladbach is 8-0-3 in the Bundesliga, with draws coming to 1st place Dortmund, 6th place Leverkusen, and a Stuttgart team that is very comparable to Hamburg. Borussia Monchengladbach scores a lot of goals at home, and should net at least 2 here against Hamburg and get the win here.
The Pick: Bor Monchengladbach Win Confidence: 3/6
7:00pm Miami Hurricanes @ Duke Blue Devils (NCAA Women’s)
Miami and Duke enter this game tied atop the ACC standings at 13-1 each. Miami lost at North Carolina by 2 and Duke lost its last road game at Maryland by 2. The two teams have not played each other yet this year, but Duke often blows out opponents at home. Miami on the other hand as had quite a few close road games. I think home court advantage gives Duke the edge here, I think I would take them on the road in this one too.
The Pick: Duke Blue Devils Confidence: 3/6
7:03pm Butler Bulldogs @ Valparaiso Crusaders
This is not the same Butler team that lost to Connecticut in the national championship game last year, but they do still have the same great coaching. The bulldogs are 5-3 on the road in the Horizon League with their biggest win coming against 2nd place Cleveland St. on February 11th. Butler lost to Valparaiso at home in overtime back on December 3rd, coming back from a 5-point halftime deficit. The Crusaders are undefeated in conference play at home since their 2-point loss to Milwaukee December 29th. Butler plays great defense, often holding teams to under 60 at home and on the road. This will be a good matchup, and should be a really close game. I’m going with Valpo because of the home court advantage, but Butler could very well take this one on the road.
The Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders Confidence: 1/6
7:03pm 1st Half 3-Pointers (Butler @ Valparaiso): 6 or Fewer/7 or More
Butler makes 5 of the 19 they shoot a game, and Valpo hits 7 of the 20 they shoot a game. So their season averages suggest 6 exactly. In their last matchup, they hit 11 total including overtime, but 6 of them were in the 1st half. The numbers point to under here, but this is essentially a toss-up prop.
The Pick: 6 or Fewer Confidence: 1/6
7:05pm How many points will be scored? 134 or Fewer/135 or More (Loyola MD @ Rider
109 points were scored in their last matchup on February 3rd, 2 of Loyola’s last 12 games have gone over and both were against a fast-paced Iona team. Rider has gone over in 10 of their last 13. I think the fact that they went well under in their last meeting is more significant, and I can’t see either team hitting 67 each here.
The Pick: 134 Points or Fewer Confidence: 3/6
9:05pm Marquette Golden Eagles @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Marquette is 12-3 in the Big East, 4-3 on the road. They lost at Georgetown and Syracuse by less than 10 points. Their last road loss was at Notre Dame by 17 to start February. Their only three conference losses were on the road against the top 3 teams in the conference excluding Marquette themselves who sits at 2nd. They did win their last road outing against a decent UConn team by 15. They’ve won their last 4 games by double figures since losing to Notre Dame. Marquette likes to score and is averaging over 80 points per game in that 4win stretch with 95 vs. Cincinnati.
West Virginia is 7-8 in the Big East, 4-3 at home. They have lost their last four home games, but all were by less than 6 points. Their last home win came against Cincinnati in overtime back in late January. They have played a few quality teams close at home this season. They lost to Baylor in overtime and beat Georgetown who was then ranked 9th in the country. They also lost on the road to Syracuse by just 2 points. They did just lose to Notre Dame by 26 points on the road Wednesday night.
These two teams haven’t played each other yet this year. W. Virginia is pretty much already out of the NCAA Tournament whereas Marquette will be playing to improve their seed. I think a red hot Marquette team beats a W. Virginia team that is 2-6 in their last 8 games.
The Pick: Marquette Win Confidence: 3/6
9:05pm Fairfield Win or Single Digit Loss @ Iona Wins by Double Digits
The Fairfield Stags have not lost on the road by double digits since January 6th against Siena. Iona is just one win ahead of Fairfield in the conference and won at Fairfield by 9 earlier this season. Iona scores the most points per game in the country at just over 83 a game, largely because they play at a very fast pace. Iona has won 4 of their last 7 at home by double digits, but teams worse than Fairfield have kept it to single digits. I think Iona does get this one by 10-14 because of home court advantage and I don’t think Fairfield can keep up with Iona on the court or on the scoreboard.
The Pick: Iona Wins by Double Digits Confidence: 3/6
9:05pm Who will have more 1st half points? Darius Johnson-Odom (or tie) or Kevin Jones (Marquette @ W. Virginia)
Johnson-Odom is a senior averaging nearly 19 points a game for the Golden Eagles. He’s scored over 21 in his last 4 games. Jones is also a senior for the Mountaineers and is averaging just over 20 points a game. He’s only made it to 20 twice in his last 5 games however. Jones is a forward whereas Johnson-Odom is a guard that shoots 40% on 3-pointers a much better number than Jones’ 28%. This is another toss-up prop but the players’ recent numbers point to Darius Johnson-Odom.
The Pick: Darius Johnson-Odom or Tie Confidence: 2/6
9:05pm Team Shaq vs. Team Chuck
All-star games are very unpredictable because neither team will have chemistry. Team Shaq headlines Blake Griffin and Jeremy Lin. Team Chuck will be led by Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins. I think Blake Griffin and Lin will give team Shaq the W, but just like all-star games, this prop is just for fun and I would avoid it with any type of a streak this late in the month.
The Pick: Team Shaq Confidence: 1/6
10:05pm 2nd Half Points in the Marquette @ W. Virginia Game. 69 or Fewer/70 or More
Typically 2nd halves usually have more scoring in them than 1st halves. I see it going under right now, but it will really depend on how the teams play in the 1st half. I won’t be watching this game because of the All-Star events in the NBA, but I would suggest taking the over if 65 points or more are scored in the 1st half, otherwise take the under. I’ll gauge whether I got the pick right or by checking the half time score. So if 65+points in the first half I’m taking over. If less than 65 I’m going under. Sorry for not having an outright answer, but those are what my choices would be for the circumstances.
The Pick: Read Preview for my conditional choice Confidence 1/6
Max picks entry for tomorrow:
2:30pm Bor Monchengladbach Win
7:00pm Duke Blue Devils Win
9:05pm Marquette Golden Eagles
Max Picks Entry Selection: 45 – 12
Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 4 - 1
Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 79%
Pick of the Day: Duke Blue Devils (NCAA Womens)
Pick of the day percentages: 7-1 88%
My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer 24 - 7 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 28 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Soccer 24 - 7 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 28 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 13 – 2 87%
Rest of the props: 94 – 44 68%
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