Thanks for voting on who you wanted analyzed the most today! The winner was Duke @ Florida State. I don’t think there are that many great picks today besides the soccer games. I’m bumping my confidence on Anderlecht up to 4/6 and making them my pick of the day. And to clear up any confusion, my twitter and youtube accounts listed on here are of no relation to SFTC. However, I will be creating a twitter account just for SFTC relating to this website, tweeting updates and such. I’m also considering trying out a video blog (Vlog) for some props to save time and my fingers while providing even more analysis, I’ll put the Vlog idea up for a vote in the next couple days as well. Good luck on your picks today and I hope my prospective is helpful. Just remember the choices are yours and yours alone, happy streaking!
1:00pm Udinese Win or Draw @ PAOK Salonika Win
Udinese sits at 3rd in the Italian Serie A standings, a league that provides many a STFC prop winner. Udinese is 2-7-5 on the road since August, but have lost their last 3. They drew PAOK Salonika at home 0-0 just one week ago. PAOK Salonika is 3rd in the Greek Super League, and is 10-5-2 since late July at home. They did just draw a mediocre Aris Salonika team in their last outing, and lost 2-0 the game before to a 2nd place Olympiakos team. PAOK has drawn 5 of its last 8 Europa League games, whereas Udinese has drawn or won 6 of their last 7 Europa League games, losing to Atletico Madrid 4-0 on the road back in early November. Udinese often gets shut out on the road, but PAOK Salonika often has trouble scoring too. Home field advantage plays a decent factor because these teams seem pretty evenly matched, but the draw option and a tougher league puts Udinese slightly ahead of PAOK in my opinion. I wouldn’t advise risking a W5 or more on this one if you are going for the streak instead of most wins.
The Pick: Udinese Win or Draw Confidence: 2/6
3:05pm AZ Alkmaar Win or Draw @ Anderlecht
AZ Alkmaar just beat Anderlecht at home a week ago, and sit tied for 1st in the Dutch Eredivisie, but they did just lose 3-0 on the road 4days ago to bad FC Utrecht team the beat 2-0 at home. I think that fact alone shows that Alkmaar’s 1-0 at home over Anderlecht means nothing in this one considering Alkmaar’s struggles on the road, their best chance in this one is the draw(which they will probably be playing for due to aggregate scoring). Anderlecht hails from the Belgian Jupiler League where they currently sit alone at 1st place. Anderlecht is 14-0-3 at home since July, and often scores 3+ goals… in fact, that’s their average having scored 52 goals in those seven games. Anderlecht will need a win here, and I think they redeem themselves from the last match between these two. I think Anderlecht will get the W, and of the 2 soccer props, I think this one is the safer pick.
The Pick: Anderlecht Confidence: 4/6
7:05pm Which player will have more Points + Rebounds? Mason Plumlee or Tie/Bernard James (Duke @ FSU)
In their last matchup, James had 20 points & boards compared to Mason Plumlee’s 12. Bernard James averages 10 points and 8 rebounds per game, and has hit his average in 3 of FSU’s last 5 games. Both the Virginia schools held him 10 points + rebounds or less, games in which Florida State struggled. Mason Plumee is actually averaging more points+rebounds on the year than James with 11 points and 10 rebound per game. He has had 19 or more in 4 of his last 5 games, but had only 6 four days ago against Boston College. Both players are coming off poor showings, but I think the stats point to Plumlee winning this matchup.
The Pick: Mason Plumlee Confidence: 2/6
7:05pm Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas was previously undefeated at home before getting demolished by Florida 98-68. Most of the reason behind the blowout was Arkansas’s zone defense and the fact that Florida could not miss a 3-pointer or a free throw (13-23 3-pointers, and 29-34 free throws). This shouldn’t matter too much against Alabama because the Crimson Tide are terrible from 3-Point land shooting just 27%. Bama is 2-4 on the road in the SEC, but lost 3 by 6-Points or less including a 6 point loss at Kentucky and a 4-point loss at Miss. St. They beat Arkansas at home by 6, which isn’t that impressive considering that the Hogs haven’t won in the SEC on the road. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think the home court swing will give Arkansas the advantage. I’m taking the hogs even though they blew my W7 five days ago, I would not suggest picking this one for anyone with a streak going.
The Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks Confidence: 1/6
7:05pm Duke Blue Devils @ Florida State Seminoles
Duke is 10-2 in the ACC with both their losses coming at home. They came back from a big-deficit to beat North Carolina 85-84 with a 3 from Austin Rivers as time expired. In the Blue Devils last road outing, they beat an awful Boston College team by 25 points. They’ve won most of their ACC road matchups by double figures.
Florida State is also 10-2 in the ACC, but 6-0 at home. Overall, their only home loss was in triple overtime to Princeton back in December. They barely managed to beat Virginia and Virginia Tech at home, but blew out then #3 North Carolina by 33-points a little over a month ago. In their last outing, they beat Virginia Tech 48-47, their 2nd lowest point total of the year. They only won the game because Snaer hit a 3-pointer with just 2.5 seconds remaining.
Florida State won the last matchup between these two teams at Duke by 3 after the Blue Devils blew a 9-Point lead. Snaer hit the go ahead 3 in the final seconds of the game. This is a matchup both teams desperately need to win for any chance at the ACC regular season crown. I can’t see Florida State sweeping Duke this year especially after struggling against Virginia Tech, and I think the Blue Devils even the series. Unless Florida State plays out of their minds or Snaer hit’s another game-winner, Duke has this one.
The Pick: Duke Blue Devils Confidence: 3/6
7:10pm Knicks Win or Single Digit Loss @ Heat Wins by Double Digits
The Linsanity come to Lebron’s kingdom in this matchup. Everyone knows about the Knicks success of late after Jeremy Lin became a starter. The Knicks have won 8 of their last 10 to Miami’s 9-1 record over those same 10 games. Yet Miami is a 9.5 point favorite. Miami won over New York by 10 in January, but that was before the Knicks had a Linsational point guard. I think the Heat get this one for sure, but the 10 point spread is quite a margin. The Heat have won by 10 or more in their last 5 home games, in fact 11 of their last 12 wins have been by double figures, often 20 points. The Knicks haven’t lost by double digits since the Heat last beat them. Both teams are playing better basketball, but New York doesn’t play as well on the road.
The Pick: Miami Heat Win by Double Digits Confidence: 2/6
7:30pm Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks
The Magic are slight road favorites in this one over a struggling Hawks team that is just 3-7 in their last 10. Orlando actually has more road wins than Atlanta has home ones. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and both teams average similar numbers for points scored and allowed. The Hawks did beat Orlando on the road in overtime in the only previous matchup between these two this year. This one’s a toss-up in my mind, but I’ll go for the underdog home team and say that the Hawks end their 3-game skid here.
The Pick: Atlanta Hawks Confidence: 1/6
8:05pm How many points will be scored in the 1st 10 min of the 2nd Half? 32 Points or Fewer/33 Points or more (Duke @ FSU)
In their last meeting, 47 points were scored in this time window even after just 58 combined points in the 1st half. Both these teams like to score, and 33 points isn’t much for these two who both average 150 combined a game combined (roughly 37.5 per 10 minutes). All the stats point to over, which is probably the right call as long as this game isn’t a defensive struggle and one or both teams has 30+ in the 1st half.
The Pick: 33 Points or More Confidence: 3/6
9:05pm Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats
Louisville has won 7 of their last 8 Big East games, with their only loss coming to #2 Syracuse by 1. Cincinnati has won 4 of its last 5 home games, with their only loss in that stretch also coming to Syracuse. The Bearcats are 5-2 at home this year in Big East play and these teams have not met yet this season. Both are 9-5 in the conference and are very evenly matched. I think Louisville has better coaching and has fared better against tougher conference opponents than Cincinnati. The Cardinals take a close one on the road.
The Pick: Louisville Cardinals Confidence 2/6
9:05pm 1st Half Points in Louisville-Cincinnati Game: 62 or Fewer/63 or More
Both teams average 70 points a game and typically go over 63 combined points in first halves but have had games nowhere close. They both also play pretty good defense and it will be tough to choose without their being any previous matchups between these two. I think it’ll be right on the 62-63 line and I would not pick this prop over the other two 9:05 ones, and there’s really no reason to choose this one because all three 9:05’s will be done after the Lakers-OKC matchup and before Gonzaga-BYU(barring-overtime). But I have to pick this one for this site.
The Pick: 63 or More Confidence: 1/6
9:05pm Wisconsin Winning Margin or Tie @ Iowa 3-Pointers Made
I have a friend at Iowa who recently tweeted something about the university letting students into this one for free, meaning the Hawkeyes are looking forward to this matchup and that the Badgers will be in for a hostile crowd. Iowa actually gave the Badgers their first conference loss up in Wisconsin on New Year’s Eve. Iowa is 4-3 in the Big 10 at home with their biggest home wins being over ranked Michigan and Indiana teams by double figures. The Hawkeyes make 5 out of the 14 3’s they attempt per game. The Badgers have been playing god basketball lately and have improved since their 7 point loss at home to Iowa. I think the 3-Pointers option gives Iowa the edge here but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes win this one outright. (Best of the 9:05pm’s in my opinion, but not sure if this is worth the risk on a W5 or higher.)
The Pick: Iowa 3-Pointers Made Confidence: 3/6
9:40pm Lakers 3-Pointers Made @ Thunder Winning Margin
This is the first time a prop like this for the NBA has appeared on SFTC in February. The Lakers average 5 3-Pointers on the road this year(6 in the last month) and have yet to play the Thunder. OKC has been dominating teams lately winning 12 of their last 13 by that 6-point margin or more at home. The numbers say OKC who is favored by 6.
The Pick: Thunder Winning Margin Confidence: 3/6
11:05pm BYU 3-Pointers Made @ Gonzaga Winning Margin or Tie
Gonzaga is one of the tougher places to play in college basketball, and have a 14-1 home record with their only loss coming to Michigan State back on December 10th. Gonzaga did lose at BYU by 10 on February 2nd, and the Cougars have played well on the road with their only loss coming to West Coast Conference leader Saint Mary’s by 16. Gonzaga dominate that same Saint Mary’s team at home by 14 points. BYU makes 7 of the 19 3’s they attempt per game. That margin will be tough for Gonzaga to overcome but I think they can do it at home even though BYU has the capability to win this prop outright.
The Pick: Gonzaga Winning Margin or Tie Confidence: 2/6
Max picks entry for tomorrow:
Max picks entry for tomorrow:
1:00pm Udinese Win or Draw
3:05pm Anderlecht Win
7:05pm Duke
9:05pm Iowa 3-Pointers Made
11:05pm Gonzaga Winning Margin
Max Picks Entry Selection: 41 – 11
Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 5 - 0
Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 79%
Pick of the Day: Anderlecht Win
Pick of the day percentages: 7-0 100%
My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer 24 - 6 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 26 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Soccer 24 - 6 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 26 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 13 – 1 93%
Rest of the props: 87 – 39 69%
No comments:
Post a Comment