My Picks for Wednesday, February 22nd

Blog Updates: Based off one suggestion from a viewer, I will now take a poll (top right corner) to see which props y’all want to know a little more about.  The highest vote getter(beside Man City, because I already chose it based off early voting) will receive a more extensive preview. I additionally added a view counter to the page, so you can now see how many people have view the page since the blog began just 10 short days ago. I added some blog info as well below the counter just as a reminder that ever prop is your choice, I just provide my opinions and prospective. I hope y’all find my write-ups helpful, good luck!

                                                     

12:00pm FC Porto Win or Draw @ Manchester City Win

I can already tell this prop was one of the top vote-getters so I will expand on what was previously written:

FC Porto’s road record since August is 6-4-3, and 1-1-1 in 2012. Their win came against the horrible Setubal team 3 days ago, and their draw was at SP Lisbon who are 4^th in the Portuguese Liga. More importantly, their loss was by 2 goals to a very mediocre Gil Vicente Team. Since August, FC Porto has not beaten a team of Man City’s caliber, nor have they drawn one. Fatigue will also affect FC Porto having played that Setubal team 3 days ago. FC Porto’s best chance in this one is the draw option.

Man City is currently leading one of the best leagues in soccer, the Barclays Premier League. They are a scoring machine at home, outscoring opponents 44-11 since August. Their home record in that time is 15-3-1. Two of their losses came to Manchester United, a team well above FC Porto’s level. They drew a Napoli team all the way back in September, but their most recent loss was a 1-0 showing against Liverpool on January 11^th, Man City was tired that game having played Man United just 4 days before. The loan goal they gave up was a penalty kick.  Man City is well rested for this one and should be at full go.

Man City did just beat FC Porto 2-1 on the road, and I think the home-field swing only increases the margin. I think Man city gets 2-3 goals to FC Porto’s 0-1.
The Pick: Manchester City Win                                                               Confidence: 4/6

2:45pm Bayern Munich Wins by 2+ Goals @ FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1

FC Basel drew Benfica on the road and beat Manchester United at home in the Champions League. They only have one 2-goal loss since July, and that was a 2-0 Champions League loss to Benfica at Home. FC Basel is currently in 1^st place in the Swiss Super League, which is of lower prestige than the German Bundesliga. Baryern Munich is sitting at third in the Bundesliga, but not far behind a great Dortmund team. Bayern is a scoring machine and has won by 2+ goals in 17 of its last 34 games, this state makes this 2+ goal margin more favorable than Real Madrid’s yesterday. Of their road games though, Bayern has won 4 of the 18 by 2 goals or more(but none since September), meaning 14 of their last 18 have been one goal wins, draws, or losses. Although Bayern has the potential to pull out a 2-goal win here, I think the best team in Switzerland manages the win, draw, or one goal loss.

The Pick: FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1                                                 Confidence: 3/6

7:00pm West Virginia Mountaineers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This game is the other top vote-getter..

The Mountaineers are 3-4 on the road in the Big East. There wins came against 3 of the bottom-5 teams in the Big East. They lost to un-ranked Seton Hall and St. John’s, yet they played ranked Syracuse and UCONN team’s close, with a 2-point loss to then #4 Syracuse at the end of January. West Virginia can score though, and average over 70 points a game.

Notre Dame is 6 -1 at home in the Big East and have won them all by double figures except for a 9-point win over then #1 Syracuse. Their only loss came to Connecticut, and the Irish got revenge beating UCONN 2 weeks later. They beat a top-15 Marquette team by 17 at the start of the month. Notre Dame plays great defense at home, often holding teams under 50-60 points. They average 5 points less than West Virginia, but their defense should keep W. Virginia well below their average. Notre Dame is coming off an overtime road win against Villanova four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor but will be unlikely.

Notre Dame won at West Virginia earlier this year 55-51, almost blowing a 10-point halftime lead. West Virginia is the more rested team, but fatigue should not be an issue for either squad. I think Notre Dame that is on a 6-game winning streak will continue the trend and win their second to last home game of the year against a West Virginia they already beat on the road.

The Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish                                   Confidence:    3/6

7:00pm Drexel Wins by 15+ Points or Any Other Result (vs. James Madison)

The James Madison Duke are 4 – 12 in the Colonial conference, a conference that has George Mason, VCU, and Old Dominion who annually provide an upset in the NCAA tourney. James Madison’s conference wins where against the 4 worst teams in the league. They’ve only lost twice by 15+ points in conference roads games though, and lost to Drexel at home by 7. Drexel is tied for first in the Colonial Conference and is 12 – 0 at home. The James Madison upset doesn’t seem very likely here. Drexel has won 4 of its 8 conference home games by 15+ points, often holding teams of the James Madison’s status to below 50 points. James Madison lost at VCU(similar to Drexel) by 20, and I think Drexel will cover the 15 point spread, but it’ll be really close. I would take a different 7:00pm prop and avoid this one, but I think it’ll be a Drexel 12-20 point win.

The Pick: Drexel wins by 15+ Points                                  Confidence: 1/6

7:05pm Kevin Durant’s 1^st Half Points: 15 or Fewer/16 or More

The Celtics have the second best scoring defense in the NBA. This stat suggests that the Durantula will be held to under his average. KD dropped 28 in OKC’s last meeting with Boston, but has scored 30+ points in his last four games. Durant is a scoring machine, averaging nearly 28 points per game. Do a little math and that breaks down to 14 points per half, add in the fact that the Celtics play good D and it equals this prop going under. I think KD definitely has the ability to score 16 or more in the first half, but I think he goes for 15 or less.

The Pick: 15 or Fewer                                                 Confidence: 3/6

8:00pm Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets

SM must love Philadelphia because they are so unpredictable. The 76ers have disappointed me on SFTC several times, and are on a 4 game losing streak. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 at home, including wins over Utah and Memphis. Coincidentally, the Memphis Grizzlies are the last team both the Rockets and 76ers have played, with Philly losing and Houston winning. After several 76er disappointments, I’m going Rockets here, I think they beat a struggling Philly team at home.

The Pick: Houston Rockets                                            Confidence:  1/6

8:00pm Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners are 2-5 at home in the Big 12 and OSU is 1-6 on the road. Oklahoma state won the last matchup between these two teams at home by 7 after having a 13-point halftime lead. Both teams are awful although OSU is slightly better. I can see this one going either way, but I think home-court advantage helps the Sooners out in this rivalry game. (I recommend avoiding both 8 o’clock props)

The Pick: Oklahoma Sooners                                             Confidence: 1/6

8:25pm 2^nd Half 3-Pointers: 7 or Fewer/8 or More (Celtics @ Thunder)

Despite both teams having excellent 3-point shooters, on the season, they only average a combined 12.6 per game, or 6.3 per half. In their last February, the number has jumped to 12.8 a game but would still be under 7 per half. There were 13 made in the last game between these two teams. I think SM puts this on here just because people will think of the great shooters and instantly pick over even though all the stats say under.

The Pick: 7 or Fewer                                                      Confidence: 3/6

9:05pm Texas Tech Free Throws Made @ Iowa State Winning Margin

There’s a reason it’s free-throws instead of 3-pointers, and that’s because Texas Tech is just plain awful, the worst team in the Big 12 with just one conference win. ISU won by 24 at Texas tech and this one should be at least a 15 point margin as well because Tech has lost nearly all of its road Big 12 games by 15 or more. Tech makes about 13 of their 19 free throws a game. Tech made 7 of 8 free throws in the last meeting between these two teams, and Iowa State fouled them 19 times. I think Texas take will make around their season average of 14 free throws and that ISU will win by 15-20.

The Pick: Iowa State’s Winning Margin                    Confidence 2/6

9:05pm Kansas Wins by Double Digits @ Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss

This one is very similar to the Missouri wins by double digits @ Texas A&M prop the other day. The Aggies won the prop, losing by 9. There was a 10 point differential between their road game(lost by 19) at Missouri and their home game vs. Mizzou. Kansas beat A&M at home by 10, but now they will have to travel to college station. I think Kansas is better than Missouri is on the road, and in general. Kansas hasn’t won any of their last 5 road games by double digits nor has Texas A&M lost any of their last 5 home games by double digits and I doubt either team will here. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an outright win for A&M here either, because it’s always tough for opposing teams in College Station.

The Pick: Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss                                   Confidence: 4/6

9:30pm Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks

Both teams are towards the top of the league in scoring defense, with Dallas having a slight edge in points scored per game. The Mavs are heavy home-court favorites here and are 13-5 at home compared to the Lakers 5-11 road record. The Lakers did beat Dallas 73-70 back in January but had to rally from behind in the 4^th quarter. Both teams struggled shooting the ball and Dirk only had 21 points. I think the Mavs get revenge on the Lakers that they swept last year in the post-season and win this one at home.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks                                         Confidence: 2/6

9:40pm More 1^st Half Points: Kobe Bryant or Dirk Nowitzki (or Tie)

Kobe averages 29 points per game which is 10 points better than Dirk’s 19. In the last 10 games though, Kobe has averages 27 to Dirk’s 25. In their matchup in LA this year, Dirk outscored Kobe 21-14. I think this is a toss-up prop with Dirk having the slight edge.

The Pick: Dirk Nowitzki or Tie                                                  Confidence: 1/6

11:00pm 2^nd Half Points in the Lakers @ Mavericks game: 94 or Fewer/95 or More

As mentioned above, the last game between these two ended 73-70 with 69 points being scored in the second half. This game will probably make it up to the 80’s, but I doubt that they’ll both score 22.5+ points each for both the 3^rd and 4^th quarter’s based upon the quality of defense both teams play. Normally I would say this is a halftime decision, but I will be driving at the time this prop will be picked and unable to update. If 94 points or less are scored in the first half, I think the same will carry over to the 2^nd.

The Pick: 94 Points or Fewer                                     Confidence: 3/6

11:10pm UC Santa Barbara Win or Single Digit Loss @ Long Beach St. Wins by Double Digits

Long Beach State is coming off a 2-point road loss to Creighton after winning all of its 12 straight Big West Conference games. UC Santa Barbara is in 3^rd in the Big West, but lost to Long Beach state at home by 23. I think Long Beach State covers the 10 point spread easy with a winning margin anywhere from 15-25 points

The Pick: Yes: Long Beach State Wins by Double Digits                     Confidence: 3/6

Max picks entry for tomorrow:

12:00pm Man City Win

2:45pm FC Basel Win, Draw, Lose by 1

7:05pm Notre Dame Win
9:05pm Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss
11:00pm 94 or Fewer (if A&M is over in time)
11:10pm Long Beach State Wins by Double Digits (if A&M wasn't over in time)

Max Picks Entry Selection:   36 – 11

Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 5 - 1

Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 77%

Pick of the Day: Texas A&M Win or Single Digit Loss
Pick of the day percentages: 6-0 100%

My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer                                                                 22 - 6 - 1
NBA                                                                     6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball                                     25 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball                                1 - 0
Golf                                                                      1 - 1
NCAA Football                                                     0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
4 winning streaks over 5 Wins

Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 11 – 1    92%

Rest of the props: 77 – 37    68%