Feel free to comment on posts, I would appreciate any constructive feedback or any opinions on props. I changed the confidence to out of 6 instead of 3 and eliminated half numbers. I hope y’all appreciate the work I’ve put into this. Despite the fact that I have shown considerable accuracy on this blog (stats at the bottom), I cannot and will not guarantee any prop on SFTC. So remember that each pick is your choice and yours alone. Green you for viewing this page and I hope the prospective I provide brings you good fortune. Thanks for the 1,000+ views, and as always, Happy Streaking!
12:00pm Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals @ CSKA Moscow Win, Draw, Lose by 1
Real Madrid is arguably one of the best soccer clubs in the world lead by superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. This is a first round Europa Cup match-up, a title Madrid has won a record nine times. Real leads La Liga and has a 9 – 1 – 1 road record since august and has outscored opponents 30 to 6 in those games. 5 of the wins were by two or more goals. Real is a scoring machine, but 2+ goals in soccer is quite a margin. It’s harder to analyze where CSKA is right now because they haven’t played in a Russian Premier League game since November. They draw crowds of 7k-18k, but they shouldn’t face Real who is used to playing in front of 90,000. Moscow can score some goals, but they lost to a 1st place Zenit St Petersburg team 2 – 0 at home. Real Madrid is substantially better than Zenit, and as long as the show up should win this one by 2. I think Real will win, I just hope they aren’t satisfied with a 1 – 0, 2 – 1 score.
The Pick: Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals Confidence: 3/6
2:45pm Chelsea Win @ Napoli Win or Draw
Napoli has won their last 2 SFTC props, but this time they are up against English Premier Elite Chelsea. Napoli is in Italy’s Serie A, which is a slightly weaker division than the English Premier League. Chelsea lost their last road outing 2-0 to an average Everton team. Home field advantage will play quite a factor in this Europa Cup match. Chelsea has not beat a quality team on the road all season and have just two 1-goal road wins against decent opponents. Napoli has won or drawn all but 2 of its home games this year, including a 3-1 win over 1st place AC Milan in front of 50,000 fans. Napoli is a tough team to beat at home and I think Chelsea plays for the draw. Unless I have vastly miss-judged the difference in level of competition, I think this will be a close game, and probably a draw or win in favor of Napoli.
The Pick: Napoli Win or Draw Confidence: 4/6
7:03pm Missouri Wins by 15+ Points or Any Other Result (Kansas St. @ Mizzou)
Missouri has played great this year especially at home despite poor depth and a lack of size. That said, K State beat Missouri in Manhattan by 16. Kansas State led the game by 23 at one point. Missouri is substantially better at home than on the road. But beat Texas Tech at home by 13, a much worse team than Kansas State. Missouri only has 3 conference wins at home by more than 15+ Points. They very well could cover the spread, but I think a Kansas State team that just upset Baylor on the road keeps it under.
The Pick: Any Other Result Confidence: 3/6
7:03pm Florida Wins by 20+ Points or Any Other Result (Auburn @ Florida)
Both the 7:00 college basketball games are large margin victories against any other result. The last time I didn’t choose Florida they beat an Arkansas team that was undefeated at home by 30 points. Florida is as good as any team in the country from 3 and if Auburn plays a zone like the hogs did then it’ll be another 30 point blowout. 20+ Points is a huge margin but Auburn has lost to worse teams by that margin 4 times. Florida usually wins at home by double digits including a 22 point win over a very comparable Georgia team. 20 points could be a stretch, but if they shoot like they did Saturday it won’t be a problem for Florida.
The Pick: Florida Wins by 20+ Points Confidence: 2/6
7:03pm (Illinois @ Ohio St) Jared Sullinger 1st Half Points + Rebounds: 14 or Fewer/15 or More
Sullinger is one of the best forwards in the country. The split as usual is right on line of his averages. In his last game between these two teams Sullinger had just 5 rebounds to go along with 21 points, which would put him under. He does have the ability to score 7 or 8 and rebound just as many in the same half, but only 4 of his last 6 have gone over. The majority of people pick over simply because of the name Jared Sullinger, but if it’s on SFTC it’s probably about a 50-50 chance either way. I’d say this one could very easily go both ways, but I think it’ll go under.
The Pick: 14 or Fewer Confidence: 2/6
8:00pm Miami Hurricanes @ Maryland Terrapins
Miami is just ahead of the Terrapins in the ACC standings, but this game is in Maryland. Maryland’s only 2 home losses in the ACC were 13 point loss to Duke and a 9 point one to North Carolina. Miami has only lost 3 times on the road in the ACC including a 1-point loss at Virginia and an overtime win at Duke. Miami won the last game between these two teams at home back on GroundHog Day in double overtime after Maryland rallied from a 11-point deficit. Considering that Maryland is considerably worse on the road then at home, I think they split the series with Miami this year.
The Pick: Maryland Terrapins Confidence: 1/6
8:00pm Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz lost their last SFTC prop. Philadelphia is a one point but has lost their last 3 games. These teams have not met yet this year, and the 76ers allow the fewest points in the NBA which could pose problems for a Memphis team that struggles to score at times. I think this will be a close game played in the high 80’s - low 90’s. The sixers end a 3 game skid and win by a few.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers Confidence: 1/6
8:05pm 2nd Half Points in Illinois @ Ohio St.: 64 or Fewer/65 or More
2nd Halves in basketball typically have more points scored than first halves because of late game fouls and free-throws. Both teams average above 65 a game and 80 were scored in the second half of their last meeting after a 73 point first half. I can’t see this one going fewer at all because both teams can struggle on defense.
The Pick: 65 Points or More Confidence: 4/6
9:05pm Virginia Cavaliers @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Tech beat a then-ranked Virginia team at UVA a month ago by 2 and one would think the home-court swing would give them the advantage. Yet currently 98% have picked Virginia to win. Virginia does play well on the road and it’s unlikely that VT will hold them to 45 points again. I think the Cavaliers split the series after beating a decent Maryland team by nearly 30.
The Pick: Virginia Cavaliers Confidence 3/6
9:08pm Which player will have more 1st half points? Anthony Davis(UK)/Arnett Moultrie(MSST) or Tie (Kentucky @ Mississippi St.)
Moultrie averages 2.5 more points than his opposing forward Anthony Davis. I think the key here is the fact that Miss. St. needs points from Moultrie more than Kentucky needs them from Davis. Both players shoot above 50% from the floor, but Moultrie can occasionally step out for the 3. The point differential will probably be around 3 points either way, but I like Moultrie here.
The Pick: Arnett Moultrie or Tie Confidence: 1/6
9:08pm Kentucky Wins by Double Digits @ Mississippi State Win or Single Digit Loss
Kentucky has outscored SEC opponents by double digits on the road by double digits 4 out of 6 times. Vanderbilt is very comparable with Miss. St. and in Kentucky’s last road outing, they beat Vanderbilt by just 6 points. I think Kentucky will beat a Bulldog team that’s been in poor form as of late, but it should be between 8-14 points. I think they’ll be able to keep Kentucky out of the 70’s and make it an 8 or 9 point loss.
The Pick: Mississippi State Win or Single Digit Loss Confidence: 1/6
10:00pm San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
The Spurs are currently the hottest team in the NBA winning their last 11. The Blazers are heavy favorites heading into the matchup with the return of former Texas star LaMarcus Aldridge. Both teams play old school basketball but I think the Spurs are bound to lose one eventually. A re-energized Portland team beats the Spurs by a couple.
The Pick: Portland Trail Blazers Confidence: 2/6
10:55pm (Kentucky @ Mississippi State) 3PM in the last 2min of the 2nd Half: Yes or No
The last time this prop was on SFTC there was a 3PM in the last two minutes, so that’s probably the reasoning behind the 90+% choosing that option. Don’t get duped by the inaccurate SFTC percentage, this prop could very, very easily go either way. I’ll take Yes, a 3PM on this coin-flip prop.
The Pick: Yes: 3PM in last 2min of 2nd Half Confidence: 1/6
Max picks entry for tomorrow:
12:00pm Real Madrid Wins by 2+ Goals
2:45pm Napoli Win or Draw
7:03pm 14 or Fewer
7:03pm 14 or Fewer
8:05pm 65 Points or More
9:08pm Arnett Moultrie or Tie
10:55pm Yes, a 3PM
9:08pm Arnett Moultrie or Tie
10:55pm Yes, a 3PM
Max Picks Entry Selection: 31 – 10
Max Picks Entry Yesterday: 3 - 3
Total Winning % for the ‘Max Picks Entry’ Picks 77%
Pick of the Day: Napoli Win or Draw
Pick of the day percentages: 5-0 100%
Pick of the day percentages: 5-0 100%
My current All-Time stats for my ESPN profile hazzargm since starting at the end of January:
Soccer 21 - 5 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 24 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Soccer 21 - 5 - 1
NBA 6 - 12
NCAA Men's Basketball 24 - 9
NCAA Women's Basketball 1 - 0
Golf 1 - 1
NCAA Football 0 - 1
Longest Streak - 8 Wins
3 winning streaks over 5 Wins
Record on this blog for props with a confidence of 4/6(using the new scale) or higher: 9 – 1 90%
Rest of the props: 69 – 34 67%
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